(Published in www.tornosnews.gr: 27.02.2024, in greek)
Sustainability is a clear priority in any modern tourism development theory. However, it is not clear how the theory can be put into practice. The case is difficult, as, while we are talking about carrying capacity, we have not yet decided which indicators to use, let alone their value range.
Let me remind you of the main indicators of carrying capacity (in bold, the ones I prefer):
- Tourism Density Index (TDI) = visitors per 100 inhabitants per day,
- Tourism Function Index (TFI) = (beds X 100)/permanent population,
- Density of tourism supply = beds per km2,
- Intensity of tourism demand = overnight stays per km2 per day.
Firstly, we need to agree on the variables' content and then we need to check the availability of the data.
"Beds": the total number of beds in all types of accommodation (hotels, rented rooms/apartments, AirBnB type, villas). Officially published data, which is easily accessible, is only available for hotel beds. With a bit of effort, the number of beds in rented rooms/apartments can be found. Respectively for the Airbnb beds, with a bit of extra effort. For villas, we rely on friends and relatives.
"Visitors": obviously, it is meant tourist arrivals plus day visitors, which the Tourism Density Index is treating equally, unjustifiable though. But there is another problem, because it is not clarified what is included in the variable "inhabitants", which is identical to the variable "population" in the Tourism Function Index."Population": is it what is recorded according to the official state census, or what it really is, i.e., the permanent residents of the destination? And where the imported labor force belongs to? To the visitors or to the population? (Let us not forget that the imported labor force moves around, consumes energy, produces waste, etc. and spends many "overnights").
"Overnights": the total number of overnight stays in all types of accommodation. The National Statistical Authority only publishes overnight stays for hotels and rented rooms/apartments. The accuracy of the data is questionable, as it is based on a sample survey, where the responses are optional and cannot be cross-checked. For the Airbnb and villas overnights...the friends on the platforms.
The "overnight stays" at the destination must therefore include the overnight stays of permanent residents as well as the overnight stays of the imported labor force, especially for the valuation of the carrying capacity. In this case, of course, it is not purely "tourist" overnight stays, but otherwise the "total pressure" exerted on the destination is underestimated. However, the day visitors should not be ignored. They arrive by cruise ships/day ferries to the islands and by buses/cars to the mainland. Of course, these visitors do not stay overnight, but they put a strain on the networks and produce waste as long as they stay at the destination. So, we also need an “equivalent” of the visitors’ overnight stays!
Let us go a bit faster. For my recent study on the island of Santorini, official statistics on 22 tourism variables were needed. However, only 9 were available! With various hypotheses and a bit of fantasy, another 9 have been estimated.
So, for the 76 km2 island, the following figures correspond for the year 2022 (slightly rounded):
- Beds: 62.000 (Hotels + Rented Rooms/Apartments + AirBnB type + Villas).
- Arrivals: 2.187.000 (Air + Sea).
- Disembarked passengers: 1.128.000 (Cruise + Day ships).
- Total population: 33.000 (Permanent residents + Imported labour force).
- Overnight stays: 19.000.000 (Total population + Tourists + Day visitor equivalent).
During the period May to October, the number of people on the island, on a daily basis ranged between 56.000 and 93.000.
Αverage daily number of the mixed population/month, Santorini, 2022
Source: Tourism Generis
Conclusion: In view of the poor data availability and lack of methodological framework for the carrying capacity, it seems the sustainable development of tourism will face difficult times ahead.
George Drakopoulos
Founder & CEO, TOURISM GENERIS